CFD Scheme — Data Analysis

Data sourced from the Low Carbon Contracts Company (LCCC) and the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ).

Chart 1: Renewable Capacity Awarded by CFD Auction Round (GW)

CFD Capacity by Round

Interpretation:

[TO BE WRITTEN — describe what the chart shows. Consider:]

  • How has the total capacity awarded grown across rounds?
  • Which round awarded the most capacity?
  • What happened in AR5 — can you see the gap or failure in the data?
  • What does the trend suggest about the scheme’s ambition over time?

Suggested length: 80–100 words

Chart 2: Offshore Wind Strike Prices Falling Across Auction Rounds (£/MWh)

CFD Strike Prices Line Chart

Interpretation:

[TO BE WRITTEN — this is one of the most powerful charts in the project. Consider:]

  • How dramatic is the price reduction from AR1 to AR3?
  • Why did prices rise again in AR5/AR6 (hint: inflation, supply chains)?
  • What does this tell us about how competition and scale reduce costs?
  • How does the strike price compare to wholesale electricity market prices?

Suggested length: 80–100 words

Chart 3: UK Renewable Energy as % of Total Electricity Generation (2015–2024)

Renewables Share of Generation

Interpretation:

[TO BE WRITTEN — consider:]

  • What was the renewable share when CFD began in 2015?
  • What is it now?
  • Is this growth consistent with the CFD capacity being built out?
  • What other factors might explain the growth (e.g. coal phase-out)?

Suggested length: 80–100 words

Chart 4: CFD Payments — Government to Developers vs Developers to Government (£bn)

CFD Payment Flows

Interpretation:

[TO BE WRITTEN — consider:]

  • In which years did the government pay developers (low market prices)?
  • In which years did developers pay the government (high market prices — energy crisis)?
  • What does this two-way flow tell us about the scheme’s design?

Suggested length: 80–100 words

Key Findings from the Data

[TO BE WRITTEN — once charts are complete, summarise the 3–4 most important things the data tells us about whether the CFD scheme is working. This will feed directly into the Comparative Analysis section.]

Notebook

The full Python code used to generate these charts is in the Jupyter notebook: notebooks/cfd_analysis.ipynb

Sources: LCCC CFD Register 2024, DESNZ Renewable Energy Planning Database, DESNZ Energy Trends June 2024